The best way to pick winning horses and find overlays
The only way to make a profit betting on horses is to find the occasional runner who is undervalued by other bettors. It’s not easy and it doesn’t happen often. While they, the other people who bet on the races, that is, can let one of the odds be a little higher than it should be, the vigorish, the amount put out by the track, will take over and it will still not be a profitable bet.
The only way to beat the crowd skill and track elimination is to find the best way to pick winners that works for you. There is no best way, but they all amount to the same. You have to learn how to make a morning line and then watch out for horses that have higher odds than you think they should and bet them.
This is how sports books and racing books do it. They have professionals who can accurately judge each broker’s chances of winning and set odds slightly lower for them to win. For example, if they believe a horse has a one in four chance of winning, they would give it a 5-2 odds. That means, if they’re right, you can’t even break even with the horse. In other words, they will always win.
The betting public does much the same, although it can be influenced by public tipsters promoting a certain horse in a race. That’s good news for you. One of the best ways to find an overlap when choosing winners is to read the horse racing news and find a horse that writers and public handicappers are promoting. Take a closer look at the breed and see if they have done well.
All the pressure the horse gets will lower the odds and you may be able to find another runner in the race who is an overlap. This usually happens in big races if he’s going to pass. The problem, of course, is that astute punters often look to these races for that very reason. Races like the Kentucky Derby, for example, offer good opportunities to find overlaps and the pools are so large that big players can bet large amounts of money without changing the odds much.
That’s why they play those races more and wait for those opportunities. When I see a promoted horse in one of those races, I usually look for another runner in the race who can beat him and watch the odds closely. With two minutes left to post, if I think the horse is an overlap, I jump in and place my bet. However, I only do this after I have carefully classified the race using all the factors and information available to me.